When dealing with geo-materials, a reliable design approach must be able to identify uncertainties, evaluate the probability of occurrence of specific scenarios, and take measures to reduce risk to acceptable levels.


CEMI commissioned Rocscience to modify its existing Phase2stat™ software to further assist geo-engineers to assess the risks resulting from design uncertainties. The tool combines Finite Element Modelling (FEM) software and the Point Estimate Method (PEM). A beta-version of Phase2stat™ software was released to CEMI sponsors.


A commercial version of Phase2 Stat™ software was released to market in January, 2011. CEMI continues to work with Rocscience to incorporate further functionality improvements beneficial to the mining industry into the Phases2 Stat software tool. An extension of this project is on-going in collaboration with the Department of Geological Sciences and Geological Engineering of Queen’s University. Further reading: Valley, B., Kaiser, P. K., & Duff, D. (2010). Consideration of uncertainty in modelling the behaviour of underground excavations. In 5th international seminar on deep and high stress mining. Australian Centre for Geomechanics.


Solution team

  • Damien Duff, CEMI
  • Benoit Valley, CEMI
  • Mark Diederichs, Queen’s University